2022-04-13 00:53:57
Will a new major military offensive be launched in #Ethiopia soon? All sides, fed. gov, #Amhara and #Afar reg. gov., #eritrea and #Tigray appear to prepare for it.
Over the past couple of weeks, information about new large-scale troops deployment on Tigray’s borders in the north by Eritrea and in south by Ethiopia have emerged. #EDF / Eritrea reinforcements are allegedly deployed on Zalambessa, Rama, Badme and Humera fronts, while reportedly new #ENDF recruits and regional special forces are dispatched to Amhara and Afar fronts.
The so-called declaration of #Truce by Ethiopia has not met its stated objective, as the federal and Afar regional gov. continue to block much needed #humanitarianaid to the famine struck population of Tigray. Only 26 trucks have reached Mekelle after the truce announcement.
Ethiopia gov. declaration of truce is thus either a) a ploy to once again buy time to prepare for a new offensive; or b) shows how incapacitated and powerless PM Abiy Ahmed is to negotiate a peace, since he relies on political fractions advocating war to stay in power.
Tigray reg. gov. can not sit idle for much longer, watching their famine struck population starve to death in the tens of thousands. They must either surrender, or break the Ethiopia siege before their army TDF is starting to starve and thus being rendered incapacitated to fight.
As all international attention is on #Russia's war on #Ukraine, the #Western #diplomatic interest and capacity to address the Ethiopia war is waning. The new international relations in the wake of the Ukraine war are also relevant here, as Ethiopia is apparently supporting Russia, further alienating Western powers from Ethiopia.
Finally, we should keep in mind that the key traditional “season of war” in Ethiopia follows the Easter holiday and before the rains start in June. If all the above are adequate indications, a new major military offensive on Tigray by Ethiopia and Eritrea will soon commence…
Via- #Kjetil
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